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- Institut f_r Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung (IEW)

Dates:December 16-17, 2005
Description:"The Future of Economic Forecasting"
Location:Leipzig, Germany
Subject:While the resources of time and money devoted to economic forecasting experienced a considerable increase over the last decades, accuracy of these forecasts seems to have hardly improved. What are the consequences for future economic forecasting? The conference looks for answers in three domains. First, it reviews the current state of forecasting accuracy, the role of the factors determining it and their possible contribution to improve it. In a second part of the conference it is asked which contribution better data, better methods, and better theories can make. Should we continue to focus e.g. so much on predicting the onset of recessions, or are there other, more promising or needed fields waiting to be more thoroughly worked on? Is the production of economic forecasts also governed by the law of diminishing returns? What are the marginal effects of improvements of theory, data, and methods? Third, whatever the outcome of these investigations of the future how should producers and consumers manage the risks and uncertainties associated with forecasts at least covering the near future? Are their better ways to follow than we do now?
JEL Code:C


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